Thursday 338

Mumbai plan

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , — zundel @ am

From the New York Landmarks Plot to the Mumbai Attack” by Fred Burton and Ben West in Stratfor 2008-12-03

the unconventional style of the attacks points to a common author

The similarity of New York and Mumbai, as detailed in the article, led to a similar attack. The similarity of the Mumbai attack and the planned Manhattan attack, as a result of similar goals and similar tactical problems, fails to warrant drawing the conclusion of the same planners. Al Qaeda may have had some involvement with the attack on Mumbai, but similarity with a planned attack on Manhattan fails to justify that conclusion.

Yet again and again, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency seems implicated.

The article does make a good point:

Like a contingency plan that might sit on the shelf for years or decades before it is useful, terrorist plots (especially good ones) can have a long shelf life and be applied in various scenarios. In fact, plans that sit on the shelf longer might actually be more effective as security officials focus their attention on evolving threats and forget old ones.

Just because a plot has been disrupted, the threat has not been eliminated. Once terrorists happen upon a successful model, they are likely to follow that model. This can be seen in al Qaeda’s return to the World Trade Center in 2001, eight years after the initial truck bomb attacks in 1993. It can also be seen in the fact that Mumbai has been the target of multiple attacks and threats, including train bombings in 2006 that killed approximately 200 people. Though the tactics might have differed, the target set remained the same.


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