Linux up, Oracle down

Analysis from the 451 Group predicts the continued growth of Linux and decline of Oracle.

2012 to be year of Linux domination

Our analysis with survey data from 451 Research division TheInfoPro shows server spending for databases and data warehousing favoring Red Hat with Linux over Oracle with either Linux or Solaris. Out of more than 165 server professionals interviewed by TIP, 67% are planning to spend more with Red Hat on database/data-warehousing, and only 6% plan to spend less. The positive figures for Red Hat mirror negative spending intentions for Oracle, with 55% planning to spend less and only 9% planning to spend more.

55% planning to spend less with Oracle.

Linux Will Eat Oracle’s Lunch in 2012, Says Analyst

So Oracle may have more than just a bad quarter.

Oracle’s Bad Quarter: IT Spending Sign, Or Fusion Confusion?

Oracle is not the canary, nor a more up to date indicator species. Its dna is older than that. It’s the dinosaur.

Oracle support portal update could cause chaos, worry users

As customers learn the perils of vendor lock-in, the uncertainty of support, and the potential for independence, Oracle will decline.

Businesses gain experience and confidence with Linux and open source software and look less for expensive hand-holding. The stability and maturity of Linux and the many open source enterprise software packages (such as ERP and CRM systems) allow businesses to assemble their own systems. This is especially appealing to small and medium size business that cannot justify software fees.

Licensing, subscriptions, and service agreements work well for large institutions and unfamiliar technology. But with enterprise class hardware and virtual servers readily available, and rock solid and well maintained Linux and enterprise software available for download, businesses move away from constant fees to use software.

Debian Linux with stability rivaling Red Hat and much easier maintenance will grow in use, as will open source enterprise software such as Adempiere, OpenERP, Project Open, vTiger, CiviCRM, RT, Ants, and OrangeHRM.

Update
Debian passes CentOS as most popular Linux for web servers

Update
Fundamental Oracle flaw revealed
This is complicated but crucially important if you use Oracle databases.
New patches came out today (2012-01-17) but no patches exist for older versions.
This can be a time bomb for large installations and a security risk for all.